Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 1.988531 2.103863 2.224968 2.362065 2.513510 2.676326 2.865458
2025-08-31 1.818688 1.978222 2.153679 2.362586 2.606724 2.885796 3.233077
2025-09-07 1.717425 1.903327 2.114377 2.374804 2.691994 3.071956 3.571549
2025-09-14 1.616500 1.815824 2.047415 2.340927 2.709932 3.168650 3.799679
2025-09-21 1.531817 1.739407 1.985162 2.303547 2.714633 3.242234 3.997758
2025-09-28 1.458282 1.670808 1.926367 2.263675 2.709315 3.297568 4.171132
2025-10-05 1.428877 1.653598 1.928618 2.299417 2.802567 3.489294 4.555480
2025-10-12 1.402458 1.637885 1.930693 2.333366 2.893777 3.683842 4.966326
2025-10-19 1.376185 1.620465 1.928762 2.360530 2.975844 3.870631 5.388422
2025-10-26 1.337962 1.585609 1.901770 2.351011 3.003592 3.977115 5.691166
2025-11-02 1.302029 1.552011 1.874504 2.338873 3.025533 4.074928 5.990605
2025-11-09 1.261811 1.511116 1.835463 2.307590 3.016032 4.120823 6.201122
2025-11-16 1.224114 1.472882 1.799303 2.279720 3.011557 4.177161 6.445793
2025-11-23 1.198602 1.450010 1.783160 2.279823 3.049974 4.307973 6.857984
2025-11-30 1.178747 1.433883 1.775404 2.291357 3.106452 4.474208 7.373255
2025-12-07 1.145920 1.398939 1.739853 2.259393 3.090323 4.510116 7.613565
2025-12-14 1.113937 1.364174 1.703294 2.224104 3.066294 4.529087 7.818779
2025-12-21 1.082942 1.329894 1.666278 2.186441 3.035914 4.533374 7.990474
2025-12-28 1.075627 1.328132 1.675569 2.220204 3.127437 4.775800 8.796550
2026-01-04 1.068144 1.325773 1.683707 2.252257 3.217910 5.026348 9.697637
2026-01-11 1.059130 1.320890 1.687825 2.277891 3.298637 5.266813 10.651073
2026-01-18 1.040852 1.302291 1.670998 2.268909 3.316381 5.377785 11.256774
2026-01-25 1.022746 1.283451 1.653184 2.257454 3.328688 5.478205 11.863160